The National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) has expressed concern over the trajectory of housing prices, following a detailed review conducted in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The findings come at a time when Cambodia’s inflation remains among the lowest in Southeast Asia, yet the real estate market shows signs of volatility.
Cambodia’s Inflation Among the Lowest in Southeast Asia
If global fuel costs remain stable, the Asian Development Bank forecasts that Cambodia will record one of the lowest inflation rates in Southeast Asia in 2024. The nation’s annual inflation dropped from 5.3% in 2022 to 2.1% in 2023 and is projected to ease further to 2.0% this year.
By comparison, inflation is expected to reach 15.5% in Myanmar, 20.0% in Laos, 4.0% in Singapore, 3.0% in the Philippines, 2.8% in Indonesia, 2.6% in Malaysia, and 3.8% in Vietnam. Only Thailand (1.0%) and Brunei (1.1%) are forecast to record lower price increases than Cambodia.
Consumer Price Trends
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains the primary measure of inflation in Cambodia, tracking monthly changes in the cost of goods and services. Published by the National Institute of Statistics, the CPI includes sub-indices for food, clothing, healthcare, transportation, communications, education, and utilities.
In the latest data, restaurant prices rose 1.1% and transportation costs increased by 2.4% compared to February last year. In contrast, communications costs rose just 0.1%, helping offset overall price pressures.
Housing Prices and the RPPI
In 2022, the National Bank of Cambodia launched the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) to monitor nationwide housing trends. This index, based on home loan data from local banks, is similar to the CPI but focuses exclusively on real estate.
June 2022 score: 109 points, up 9% from the 2020 average.
Mid-2023 peak: 116 points, 16% higher than 2020 levels.
End of 2023: 112 points, where it remained in early 2024.
The RPPI currently includes only two sub-indices—Phnom Penh and the provinces—but this may expand in future revisions.
IMF Review and NBC Concerns
The IMF confirmed that NBC staff raised concerns about the accuracy of the RPPI’s growth rates. A technical mission, led by IMF senior economist Barra Casey, visited Phnom Penh in January. Casey, an expert in real estate data and a former Bank of Ireland official, analyzed the methodology and found price increases had been overstated.
For example, while official figures showed a 16% rise in prices over 18 months leading to June 2021, revised data indicated the increase was closer to 11%.
Data Collection and Timeliness
The NBC’s housing price survey is based on hundreds of housing loan records each month—averaging 1,260 per month in 2022 and 880 in 2023. Data is collected within ten days of the reference month, verified by the twentieth day, and published at the start of the following month.
Details include price, location, property type, dimensions, ownership, and construction year.
Gaps in Housing Market Data
The IMF noted significant gaps in the RPPI’s coverage:
Foreign bank loans are excluded.
Cash purchases and non-developer-financed acquisitions are missing.
Flats (apartments) are not tracked—likely due to foreign buyers using overseas loans.
The IMF recommended integrating NBC loan data with Ministry of Economy and Finance tax records and using real estate listing websites to fill data gaps. In the medium term, NBC should expand coverage with microfinance institution loan data, particularly for provincial markets.
Expanding Phnom Penh Coverage
During the IMF mission, changes were made to improve data accuracy:
Minimum land size for inclusion reduced from 40 sqm to 20 sqm.
Loans to developers excluded, as they finance construction rather than purchases.
Proposal to divide Phnom Penh into three zones:
Central and East Phnom Penh (8 khans)
Inner Suburbs (4 khans)
Outer Suburbs (4 khans)
December 2024 Deadline for Methodology Updates
By June, the IMF requested revised indices for comparison with public data. Depending on results, historical data from 2020 onward may be updated. Improved methods are expected to be used for the December 2024 RPPI release, with full methodological transparency published on the NBC website.
The IMF concluded that accurate housing market data is essential for monitoring economic stability, managing financial risks, and understanding the link between real estate and the broader economy. The Cambodian government has pledged strong support for these improvements.
